Didier WILLAERT and
Johan SURKYN
2001-2002
Abstract:
For the compilation of the ‘Witboek Stedenbeleid’, population projections were made for smaller geographical entities (cities, migration basins linked to those cities and zones inside basins) that were identified using their migration characteristics. Thus, more optimal geographical entities were first constructed, countering the effect of migration becoming more important in projections as geographical units become smaller.
Most important results:
Janus II software was used to make regional population projections taking into account differences in fertility levels and, most importantly, variations in migration levels and age distributions. Three projection scenarios were constructed ranging from a new phase of increased suburbanization to a moderate tendency of return to living in urban environments. Like other (national) projections results demonstrate relative stability of total population, but significant reductions in proportions under 40 years old and concomitant increase among the older and very old (80+). Considerable regional variations on this pattern were found, linked to functional differences, saturation effects and housing conditions between cities and migration basins (metropolitan, higher education, local labour market).
< BACK